Spring budget 2024: What to expect - from tax cuts to fuel duty

February 26, 2024

Today's budget is likely to be the last major fiscal event before the next general election, expected later this year.

The Tories have been hinting at further tax reductions in a bid to woo over voters as the party continues to languish behind Labour in the polls.

We already know that the chancellor will announce a further cut to national insurance and extend a freeze on fuel duty in a bid to ease the strain on people's finances.

But as the country enters a recession, questions remain over whether there is enough so-called fiscal headroom for further giveaways.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Jeremy Hunt said the budget would be "prudent and responsible" but that in the long run, he wanted the UK to have a lower tax burden.

How to watch the budget and get key announcements

Sky News takes a look at what we can expect from the spring budget.

Income tax cut

The big headline grabber would be if Mr Hunt decided to cut income tax.

He is under pressure to do so by Tory MPs, but economists have warned that public services could buckle under the weight of any further spending cuts to fund such a reduction.

According to the Resolution Foundation, slashing income tax by just 1p would cost £7bn and would actually result in tax bills rising for anyone earning less than £38,000 a year if the freeze on personal allowance thresholds was maintained.

Cancelling the personal allowance freeze planned for 2024-2025 would also cost £7bn, the think tank said, so this may be a more likely option as it would result in more people paying less tax.

National Insurance cut

Instead of focusing on income tax, Sky News understands that Mr Hunt will look to cut national insurance (NI) instead - by a further 2p.

Treasury insiders said the chancellor has leaned in towards an NI cut because it applies across the UK - Scotland sets its own income tax thresholds - and is designed to "make work pay".

A 2p NI cut would cost around £10bn and benefit around 27 million workers. Taking into account the 2p NI cut announced at the last budget in November, it would allow Mr Hunt to say he is cutting taxes by an average of £900 this year.

However, experts have warned that the measure would not by itself be enough to stop the tax burden reaching record levels by the end of this decade.

The £20bn of cuts to national insurance are set against the context of around £35bn of tax rises through the six-year personal tax threshold freeze, the Resolution Foundation said.

Vape duty

Mr Hunt is also considering a "vaping products levy" which would be paid on imports and by manufacturers of vapes in an attempt to make the habit unaffordable for children.

The tax will be specifically on the liquid in vapes, with higher duties for products with more nicotine.

However, to ensure vaping remains a cheaper alternative to smoking, there will also be a one-off increase in tobacco duty, with the two measures expected to raise £500m by 2028/2029, according to The Times which first reported on the story.

Downing Street confirmed to Sky News that the levy is being considered "as an option".

Fuel duty cut

Sky News understands that Mr Hunt is set to extend a 5p cut in fuel duty.

Fuel duty has been frozen since 2011, but it is due to go up by 5p at the end of March.

Scrapping the planned increase would cost £2bn, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Given the government's recent attempts to create dividing lines with Labour by pushing a "pro-driver agenda" as opposed to more costly green policies, it seems likely Mr Hunt will extend the freeze.

Inheritance tax abolished

There has been rampant speculation that Mr Hunt could abolish Inheritance Tax (IHT). But given it raises around £7bn for public services a year and just 4% of the population pays it, scrapping it would be a huge electoral gamble.

While many Tory MPs hate it, any cut to IHT would likely be seen as a tax break for the better-off - and this is certainly the attack line Labour would take.

That being said, Mr Hunt may choose to change thresholds to take into account rising house prices. At present, IHT is charged at 40% and applies to estates worth more than £325,000, (though there are various allowances that can mean it's only paid on more valuable estates).

Mr Hunt could look at tweaking the 40% rate, or changing the rules on gifting thresholds.

Read more: Inheritance tax: Who's paying it and how much is it generating?

Help for first-time buyers

Away from tax cuts, Mr Hunt is said to be drawing up proposals for a 99% mortgage scheme ahead of the budget.

The scheme would allow first-time buyers to put down a 1% deposit, with the government acting as a loan backer, according to the Financial Times.

Housing Secretary Michael Gove has previously hinted something like this would be on offer either at the spring budget, or in the Conservatives' next manifesto.

He has said the government is looking at "the rigidities in the mortgage market", with other options reportedly under consideration including 30-year fixed-term mortgages or a resurrection of the Help to Buy scheme.

Read more: First-time buyers fall to 'lowest level in a decade'

Many Tory MPs are concerned young people will abandon the party at the next election without policies that make it easier for them to get on the housing ladder.

However, experts have said cutting the upfront cost of a home doesn't solve the issue of needing to build more of them, and owners could end up in negative equity, where their debts end up being bigger than the value of the home.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

Overhaul of lifetime ISA rules

Mr Hunt has hinted he is open to shaking up Lifetime Individual Savings Account (LISA) rules as another way to get more people on the property ladder.

LISAs offer a government-funded bonus on savings for buying a first home, but penalty charges apply if the cash saved is not spent on property, or if the property purchased is above the current £450,000 limit.

Money-saving expert Martin Lewis has called for that limit to be increased to take into account rising house prices, and for penalty charges to be reduced in order to make the scheme a more attractive savings vehicle.

Last month, Mr Hunt appeared on Mr Lewis's show and told him he "absolutely" heard what he had to say on the LISA topic and to "consider the chancellor properly lobbied on that point".

Child benefit reform

Mr Hunt may also use the budget to raise the threshold at which the controversial High Income Child Benefit charge applies.

Currently anyone claiming child benefit has to pay some of it back if they earn over £50,000 or all of it back once they start earning £60,000 a year. It is seen as particularly punitive to single-income families as one parent earning £50,000 would face the charge, but two parents earning £49,000 each would escape it.

Mr Hunt recently acknowledged the rules are "unfair" following campaigning by Mr Lewis, and said he would change it at the budget "if it's affordable to do so".

According to the Resolution Foundation, raising the withdrawal threshold from £50,000 to £70,000 would cost £2bn and abolishing it altogether would cost £4bn.

Watch Sky News from 12.30pm today to find out what will be in the spring budget

Rate this item
(0 votes)

HOW TO LISTEN

103.5 & 105.3FM

Online

Mobile Apps

Smart Speaker