Hezbollah faces huge risks if it joins war against Israel

October 25, 2023

There have been huge questions over why Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has kept his silence since Hamas's attack on Israel.

Now, images have appeared of him holding a meeting with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Lebanon. It's hard to decipher what it means beyond the fact that he is now visible.

According to reports by Hezbollah media, the meeting was to discuss the ongoing situation and the response by the "axis of resistance".

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Hezbollah has officially sent contradictory messages about what it will do next.

On the one hand, it's signalled it will expand its attacks on Israel if there's a ground invasion. On the other, it's messaged that it does not seek escalation.

What is clear is that the situation remains the most tense it's been since the "Summer War" of 2006, when Hezbollah and Israel fought for 34 days.

The question now is this: are we about to see another major conflict that would have huge regional and global implications?

Israel is certainly preparing for a second front opening up - armour is on the move in the northern sector and positions are being reinforced - that is to be expected.

Hezbollah sources also say they are readying for the worst - there have already been a number of clashes and exchanges of fire across the border.

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Worrying times, but not necessarily a precursor to war.

It could simply be a show of solidarity and a way of keeping Israeli forces busy in the north that will stop of a major escalation.

But, it could also be a holding pattern before a major attack, with the decision to launch maybe contingent on how far Israeli forces go in Gaza.

If another war broke out, there's good reason to think it would be far worse than the last - and for that reason it may be avoided with both sides holding back, as a way of containing clashes just to the border region.

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Analysis: Why conflict is so perilous

Hezbollah has lost huge numbers of fighters in Syria. Its actions there were also hugely unpopular in the Arab world - damaging its reputation.

If it did overtly join the fight now, it could help lift it from the pit of sectarianism.

But the risk of doing so is huge. Hezbollah has lost a great deal of support in Lebanon and the country can ill afford another war with Israel.

Most Lebanese are reeling from the effects of a profound economic crisis - a conflict initiated by Hezbollah would have very little support.

The risk though of accidental escalation or miscalculation is very real - and that is why this is a very dangerous moment.

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