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Aston Villa vs Sheffield United, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Aston Villa are looking to make it 16 Premier League wins in a row to go top of the table while Sheffield United are the only team without an away win and have conceded the most goals in the top five European Leagues (43) this season. It tells the story of why Villa are 1/6 with Sky Bet and the away win comes in at 16/1. It should be routine.
The one-sided nature to the market has got me delving elsewhere for an angle in and guess what? It's the Aston Villa offside trap that has got me interested. Unai Emery's high line has managed to catch the opposition offside 71 times in their last 12 games across all competitions, averaging out at 5.9 per 90 minutes. Whopping numbers.
The most likely runner in-behind for the Blades is former Villa youngster Cameron Archer, who is playing off the left for Chris Wilder and has a healthy offside record of being flagged three times in his last four starts. It's an average that mirrors his offside rate when on loan at Middlesbrough last season where he registered a 0.75 per 90-minute offside average over a healthy 20-game sample size. When you factor in the aggressive offside line he'll be running against and his raw offside numbers, it points to the 6/5 with Sky Bet for one or more Archer offsides and 6/1 for two or more rating as significant chunks of value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
West Ham vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pm
Those that like to back games to fall under the 2.5 line this season have had a rough ride with the added injury time, red card average and penalty upsurge causing a volatility that is making Premier League games very goal heavy. But when Manchester United play away from home, especially against lower ranked opposition, backing a low scoring game is still an attractive option at the prices with 6/5 on offer from Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals.
Also, in the last 35 Premier League Saturday 12.30pm kick-offs, 24 of those have produced under 2.5 goals - that's a 69 per cent strike and subsequently means at the odds offered up you'd be swimming in profit. It remains a fixture timeslot riddled with sleepiness.
- Get Sky Sports | Premier League table
- Man Utd's new ruthless contract approach and what it might mean for Sancho
Erik ten Hag may not appear to be a manager who would be the life and soul of the party but his teams can win ugly when the pressure is on - and his team will be in that mode for this one. If you look at their record against teams that finished in the bottom 11 places of the Premier League last season or are predicted to be there this season, it shows that 11 of those 15 matches fell under the 2.5 goal line. They have conceded just six goals in those 15 matches. Say what you want about Ten Hag's football, that is an outstanding record.
Remarkably, United have also taken 40 points from 45 available against such opposition. The 11/2 with Sky Bet on United winning looks overpriced.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Fulham vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I'm getting a little bored of waiting for Burnley to become a competitive Premier League side. Vincent Kompany talks about needing patience but the Clarets have been short in every department for this level. That appeared the case in their timid defeat to Everton. They've now failed to score in seven Premier League games this season and their overall haul of 16 goals is being skewed by scoring 31 per cent of those against 10-player Sheffield United in their 5-0 win.
A Fulham home win should be on the cards but we need to boost that 4/6 with Sky Bet. We can do it by adding Fulham to win most corners in the match through the Bet Builder that gets us to a 6/4 chance.
As shown by their overall corner data, Marco Silva's side are very adept at keeping the opposition away from their goal at home. Only Arsenal have shipped fewer corners this season in home matches than Fulham and their aggregate corners won vs corners conceded data reads 52-25 with Silva's side winning more corners than the opposition in six of their eight home matches.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Luton vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Do you feel comfortable taking 8/13 with Sky Bet about a Newcastle win - a team that have won just two of their last 15 away games in all competitions? When intensity and confidence levels are brimming, Newcastle are clearly a better football team than Luton but Eddie Howe's men look vulnerable running into a potentially extra motivated home side.
They'll be playing with Tom Lockyer in mind, no doubt.
And as expected this season, Kenilworth Road is proving a difficult venue for Premier League teams to perform at.
Despite already facing Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool at home, Rob Edwards' side have managed to come out the other side with an 5-8 aggregate scoreline with all games seeing Luton defy getting beaten by more than one goal. In fact, 12 of their last 14 games have been settled by a one-goal margin (W2 L7) or have ended drawn. Luton to avoid defeat at 5/4 with Sky Bet stands out - as does a 1-0 home win at 12/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Is Nuno Espirito Santo an upgrade on Steve Cooper? It seems a pointless change to my eyes.
Time will tell on that front, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Cooper's career flourish further when situ in a different football structure.
Nuno will bring defensive discipline and organisation in the short-term and under 2.5 goals in this encounter looks like landing at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
Outside Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea, his Wolves team between 2018-2021 had the best defensive process in the Premier League when it came to expected goals against and shots faced - better than Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham. Whether that defence-first focus style can still cut it in a Premier League where goals are flowing at a record rate is highly debatable though. But for now, his influence can keep Forest ticking away towards the lower end of mid-table - no doubt like Cooper would have done.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Tottenham's clear tactic of starting games fast makes them a very attractive punting possibility here for the home win at 4/5 with Sky Bet. Spurs have scored first in their last 11 Premier League games which is bad news for Everton, who have real issues chasing games since Sean Dyche took charge.
The Toffees have fallen behind 17 times in Premier League games and gone on to lose 14 times, drawing three. Meaning they've failed to win when conceding the first goal under Dyche.
The absence of Abdoulaye Doucoure is a big miss, too.
James Garner was tasked with providing the pressing and energy from the tip of the Everton midfield against Fulham and he made three fouls in a game where Everton dominated possession. His workload and possible chances to foul players will increase playing away at Tottenham, who have won more free-kicks than any other Premier League team this season (239). This makes Garner's foul numbers an interesting angle of attack where he can be backed at 11/10 with Sky Bet to make two or more and 7/2 to make three or more - something he has done in three of his last six starts.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Liverpool vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Gabriel Martinelli's poor return in front of goal - he's scored just twice in his last 19 Premier League appearances - means his shots and goalscorer prices have become rather juicy versus an opponent he has a fantastic record against.
The Brazilian ran Liverpool ragged last season, scoring and assisting in both fixtures as Trent Alexander-Arnold's defensive flaws become particularly noticeable tasked with trying to stop the tricky Brazilian.
He has scored more goals vs Liverpool than any opponent (4) and the out-ball he provides the Gunners, along with his usual trustworthy finishing ability, makes the 11/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring the first goal very attractive. Those who like to play a little safer should also be alerted to his 4/1 anytime score price, the 5/6 for him to have at least one shot on target and the 7/2 for him to register an assist. He can fire Arsenal to a statement win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Wolves vs Chelsea, Sunday 1pm, live on Sky Sports
It's that time of the year where Christmas cards are dished out - and this match is no exception. These two clubs sit first and second in the fouls committed table this season while only Tottenham, Brighton and Sheffield United have been shown more yellow cards than Wolves and Chelsea. Referee David Coote couldn't be in better form in terms of his card output either having flashed 10 yellows and two red cards last week in Aston Villa's win at Brentford.
With the outright market pre-empting a cards-fest, heading to the individual player cards market and perhaps doubling up some players using the Bet Builder could prove profitable. For example, Rayan Ait Nouri (9/4), Hee-Chan Hwang (7/2), Cole Palmer (3/1) and Raheem Sterling (9/4) are only one yellow card away from a suspension that would give them a bonus holiday day across the hectic festive period.