Two out of three locked in - but midfield selection is Southgate's key call

Gareth Southgate chuckled in the mixed zone after England's win over Australia on Friday that it would be a brave man to leave Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham out of a first-choice XI right now. The two midfielders are nailed on starters and are set to play a crucial role at next summer's Euros.

But the midfield still remains Southgate's biggest dilemma because the profile of player he puts alongside that pair will dictate how England play - and have a major impact on how far they go in Germany.

At the World Cup, it was Jordan Henderson who surprisingly claimed the role, defying his doubters to add industry in the middle of the park and free up Bellingham to take on the creative role he has now made his own. When Rice and Bellingham have been available, Southgate has gone with Henderson alongside them in the qualifiers with Ukraine this year and named him captain on Friday, despite criticism from outside the camp about his move to Saudi Arabia.

However, Southgate went with Kalvin Phillips away to Italy in March, with the Man City man perhaps seen as an option to add extra security alongside Rice against the top teams in tough matches - despite his lack of game time at club level. Pep Guardiola preferred to play Bernardo Silva out of position ahead of Phillips against Arsenal earlier this month but he retains Southgate's respect after the role he played at the last Euros.

Then there is the Trent Alexander-Arnold dilemma. He starred in an orthodox midfield role against Malta and North Macedonia in the summer and finished Friday's game in that position too, after attempts earlier in the game to replicate his Liverpool hybrid role from right-back had mixed results.

His link-up play with Bukayo Saka earlier this year was notable and will be a factor in Southgate's thinking when it's tournament time - but the Arsenal man's absence against Italy on Tuesday, along with Alexander-Arnold playing the full 90 minutes against Australia could see him return to the bench.

Chelsea regular Conor Gallagher is another option but appears to be down the order and James Maddison, behind Bellingham for the No10 shirt, may have to hope for a wide forward role. So it seems Southgate has to make his call between the tried-and-tested options of Henderson and Phillips (who both bring their own caveats) or throw his faith behind Alexander-Arnold's creativity and judge whether he needs to restructure his set-up to accommodate him.

It's a tricky decision but one Southgate has to get right if England are going to click next summer. Tuesday night will be one of the last remaining chances to find the right formula against top opposition.
Peter Smith

Saka absence opens door to Foden

Bukayo Saka has become undroppable on England's right flank, starting all but one of their last 10 competitive games, but his absence from the latest squad due to injury leaves a vacancy against Italy.

Jarrod Bowen filled in as Gareth Southgate fielded an experimental line-up against Australia but the West Ham winger failed to make much of an impact. Another change is all but certain on Tuesday night.

Phil Foden will be hoping to fill the void this time around.

The 23-year-old's best position has been the subject of much debate in recent weeks. While some see Foden as a central midfielder, Southgate regards him as a wide option. His last outing on the right-hand side will only have hardened the England manager's view.

Foden was outstanding in that position in last month's 3-1 friendly win over Scotland, scoring England's well-worked first goal, producing the cross which led to Jude Bellingham's second, and catching the eye with a fine all-round performance.

With Marcus Rashford and Jack Grealish battling for the left-sided spot in England's attack, Foden now appears to have a clear run on the right. Another display like the one he produced at Hampden Park will give Southgate further encouragement that England remain potent even when Saka is unavailable.
Nick Wright

Southgate to stick with tried and trusted at centre-back?

In defence, Gareth Southgate's plans will revolve around the fitness of John Stones.

The Man City star has played just 51 minutes of football since the Community Shield because of a hip injury, including 29 second-half minutes in England's 1-0 victory over Australia at Wembley last Friday.

Ahead of the Australia game, Southgate warned Stones, who missed last month's internationals against Ukraine and Scotland, would have to be managed carefully through this international camp.

"With John [Stones], we've had really good dialogue as we always have with Manchester City," the England boss said. "We've got a plan in place for that and there's a reality around how much we should be playing him given the amount of football he's had and the length of time he's been out. We always look after all of our players physically - that's very important."

So, is a start against Italy part of that plan?

Outside of Stones and Harry Maguire, Southgate's options at centre-back are relatively inexperienced at international level. However, Southgate has tried to change that with Lewis Dunk, who also played against Scotland last month, and Fikayo Tomori handed starts against Australia, while Marc Guehi started both games during the September international break. Chelsea defender Levi Colwill is also an option at centre-back, but the 20-year-old made his Three Lions debut at left-back on Friday.

But with Italy, who moved to within three points of group leaders England with a 4-0 over Malta on Saturday, the visitors to Wembley on Tuesday, it would be no surprise to see Southgate turn to his tried and trusted experienced defenders with Stones starting alongside Maguire.
Oliver Yew

England aim for a measure of Wembley revenge - but what's next matters most

Just over two years ago, Italy came, they saw and they conquered England at Wembley in the final of Euro 2020. Rain, tears, crowd trouble, penalties… it was a painful night for the home side and their supporters. Glory was so close and then gone.

Being grouped with Italy in qualifying for the next Euros has given England the opportunity to exact some small measure of revenge and they did that in the first meeting in Naples in March, when record-breaking Harry Kane helped his side to a 2-1 win. Back under the arch against the European champions, England will want to try to colour over the memories of July 2021 with some more new, positive ones against the Azzurri.

Ultimately, nothing will make up for that shootout defeat on home soil but next summer England have a real shot at going the distance again - and there would be some symbolism if they do the double over the defending champions on their way to claiming the crown themselves in Germany.

That bigger prize is the real focus for Gareth Southgate and his players this week. Landing another blow on the side which got the better of them on their biggest night will bring some short-term reward but it must be a step towards silverware. If Southgate can find the right answers to the selection dilemmas discussed above and England win on Tuesday to book their place at Euro 2024, it may just feel like they're on the journey to where they want to be.
Peter Smith

Colwill or Trippier at left-back?

England were barely tested defensively in Friday night's win over Australia but a pleasing sight was Levi Colwill's display at left-back.

The young defender's rise as a full-back at Chelsea in the opening weeks of the season was unexpected, but provides Gareth Southgate with an alternative option ahead of next summer's Euros.

Now, with Italy set to provide a sterner attacking test on Tuesday, Southgate has to decide whether to stick with Colwill after impressing on his senior international bow - or go with experience in Kieran Trippier, with both Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell injured.

Perhaps set pieces could play on Southgate's mind, with Trippier's dead ball expertise particularly useful with fellow dead ball specialists Bukayo Saka, Mason Mount and Eberechi Eze all absent for the Three Lions.

But Colwill has shown his own technical credentials this season. Do you drop someone in form?
Sam Blitz