NFL playoff permutations for Week 18: Packers and Patriots to win wild card spots? Eagles to clinch No 1 seed in NFC?

January 04, 2023

The 2022 NFL regular season draws to a close on Sunday, with plenty to play for, playoff places on the line, and seedings still to be determined. Here we take a look at precisely what's at stake in Week 18...

Who will claim two final wild card spots?

There are two remaining playoff places to be claimed on Sunday, the final wild card berths in each conference, after the Jacksonville Jaguars wrapped up the AFC South division title with a win over the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night.

At the moment, the New England Patriots (8-8) hold their fate in their own hands in the AFC. Win at the Buffalo Bills (12-3) on Sunday - live on Sky Sports NFL, 6pm - and they're in, regardless of results elsewhere.

The Miami Dolphins (8-8) will profit from a Patriots loss or tie, so long as they beat the New York Jets (7-9) at home, while if they were also to slip up then the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) are the next cab off the rank and would sneak into the postseason with a home win over the Cleveland Browns (7-9).

There is a way the Patriots can still qualify for the postseason in defeat, so long as the Dolphins and Steelers also lose. A tie will also be good enough, so long as neither team betters their result.

As for the final NFC wild card spot, the Seattle Seahawks (8-8) are currently in possession of the seventh and final seed, but it doesn't see them hold all the cards heading into Sunday.

Win versus the Los Angeles Rams (5-11) and they would still be edged out of the playoff picture by the Green Bay Packers (8-8) were they to be victorious on Sunday Night Football against the Detroit Lions (8-8) - live on Sky Sports NFL, 1.20am, Monday.

Were the Lions to win, then the Seahawks would progress... UNLESS they lose to the Rams, in which case it would be Detroit who'd clinch a postseason place with victory. The Lions would also edge out the Packers in the event of a tie and a Seahawks loss.

Will the Eagles claim the No 1 seed in the NFC?

The Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) confirmed the No 1 seed in the AFC with a win on Saturday night over the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) need to follow suit and win on Sunday to ensure it's they from the NFC who gain the benefit of an extra week's rest with a first-round bye in the playoffs.

The Eagles would also earn home-field advantage throughout the postseason with a victory at home over the New York Giants (9-6-1) - live on Sky Sports NFL, 9.25pm. The Chiefs, however, aren't assured of that luxury, due to the cancelled Week 17 game between the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals following the cardiac arrest suffered by Damar Hamlin on the field.

The NFL confirmed on Friday three scenarios in which an AFC Championship game between Kansas City and either the Bills or Bengals would be played at a neutral site.

Back in the NFC, should the Eagles slip up, the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) and their seventh-round rookie quarterback sensation, Brock Purdy, are poised to take advantage and steal the No 1 seed with a home win over the lowly Arizona Cardinals (4-12).

The Dallas Cowboys (12-4), who would see themselves pinch the NFC East division from the Eagles with a win at the Washington Commanders (7-8-1) on Sunday plus a Philadelphia defeat, could also catapult themselves into the No 1 spot if the 49ers were also to lose.

What else is there to play for in Week 18?

Still a fair bit. Specifically, a lot of jockeying for seeding in each conference.

In the AFC, the Bills (12-3) and Bengals (11-4) could yet switch places as the No 2 and 3 seeds. Cincinnati own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo, so a win at home to the Ravens (10-6) and a Bills loss versus the Patriots (8-8) would see them sneak a spot up the postseason standings.

Other than the aforementioned battle for the final wild card berth in the conference, the only other seeding as yet undecided comes down to which of the Ravens and the Chargers (10-6) land the No 5 spot and would therefore travel to Jacksonville on Super Wild Card Weekend.

At the moment that figures to be the Chargers, unless the Ravens were to better the result of their road game against the Denver Broncos (4-12) on Sunday.

In the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) are locked in as the No 4 seed and will most likely host the Cowboys (12-4) in the first round of the playoffs, unless there's any Eagles (13-3) collapse on Sunday to see them steal the NFC East, or possibly even the No 1 seed, with a win over Washington (7-8-1).

The 49ers (12-4) are first in line for that No 1 spot should there be any Philadelphia fumble, but they could themselves stumble back to the No 3 seed should they lose to the Cardinals (4-12) and the Minnesota Vikings (12-4) capitalise and jump up to No 2 by bettering their result on their road at the Chicago Bears (3-13).

The Vikings can't, however, claim the No 1 seed, even if they were to win and all of the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys were to lose. In that scenario, though they'd match Philadelphia on win-loss record, the Eagles would hang on to top spot due to having the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two teams.

The Giants (9-6-1) are another team locked in, at No 6, regardless of their result at Philadelphia on Sunday, while the Seahawks (8-8), Packers (8-8) and Lions (8-8) are left slugging it out for that final wild card place.

What does the unplayed Bengals-Bills game mean for the playoffs?

The Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals game that was halted Monday when Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin experienced a cardiac arrest on the field will not be resumed or replayed, the NFL announced on Thursday night.

NFL owners then approved a resolution to the AFC playoff picture in a special meeting on Friday, which will see the AFC Championship game played at a neutral site if any of three possibilities occur:

1) If Buffalo (12-3) and Kansas City (13-3) both win or draw this weekend, a Bills vs Chiefs Championship Game would be held at a neutral site.

2) If the Bills and Chiefs both lose this weekend and the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) win or draw, a Buffalo vs Kansas City Championship Game would be played at a neutral site.

3) If the Bills and Chiefs both lose and the Bengals win, Buffalo vs Kansas City or Cincinnati vs Kansas City AFC title game would be held at a neutral site.

In addition, if the Ravens (10-6) were to defeat the Bengals (11-4) on Sunday, giving Baltimore a season sweep of Cincinnati, the teams would end with the same number of wins, but the Bengals would win the division due to having fewer losses.

Should those teams wind up facing off in a wild card game, the NFL have decided that a coin toss will take place to determine the designated home team for that game, despite Cincinnati being the higher seed. This is due to the fact that Baltimore could possibly have won the division if the Bengals had gone on to also lose the Week 17 game against Buffalo.

Sky Sports NFL is your dedicated channel for NFL coverage through the season - featuring a host of NFL Network programming. Don't forget to follow us on skysports.com/nfl, our Twitter account @SkySportsNFL & Sky Sports - on the go!

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