'Beginning of the end for fossil fuels': Global energy crisis driving shift to clean power

October 26, 2022

The "unprecedented shock" of the global energy crisis will likely accelerate the shift to clean power, the world's leading energy authority has said, despite fears Russia's weaponisation of gas amid war in Ukraine would have the opposite effect.

Fears that Putin's invasion would make the world cling to fossil fuels for even longer may be somewhat allayed by that assessment by the International Energy Agency, which says the crisis could mark a "historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure future".

The partial lurch towards coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, by countries like the UK and Germany - in an attempt to stave off blackouts after Russia cut off gas supplies - is set to be only "temporary", the IEA said.

And for the first time ever the global appetite for burning for fossil fuels - which damages food, health, nature and entire industries - is predicted to level off from the mid-2020s as the "world energy order is reshaped".

"Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

"The energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system."

The IEA hailed the USA's landmark Inflation Reduction Act, passed this year and set to unleash a £320bn investment in clean power, and further green plans from major economies including the EU, China, India, Japan and Korea.

Together the policies are helping fuel a doubling in cash flowing into renewable and nuclear power to £1.7trn by 2030. But the figure is only half of the funds needed to meet the world's 2050 net zero goal, which means cutting all emissions to almost nothing and then offsetting the rest.

'Used and abused'

Global wind lobby group GWEC said the fossil fuel era "concentrated power in the hands of a few nations" - allowing it to be "used and abused".

The widely respected IEA shot down claims that climate policies and net zero commitments contributed to the run-up in energy prices, saying there was "scant evidence" for them.

Financial think tank Carbon Tracker said Russia's war in Ukraine "marks the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel sector".

The analysis offers a little relief to Wednesday's United Nations report that warned the world is still way off track to limit warming to safe levels, in spite of progress on country's climate pledges.

But it too called out the huge gap between today's pledges and limiting global temperature rise to around 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, after which the climate impacts become increasingly catastrophic.

Climate breakdown is already inflicting damage like extreme monsoons in Pakistan, flooding in Nigeria and record wildfires in Europe, and these will worsen the warmer the world gets.

The IEA also warned international efforts to narrow the "worrying divide" in clean energy investment in rich versus poor countries was severely lacking.

Rich nations are still yet to come good on a long-standing promise to channel $100 billion a year to developing countries to help them keep up with climate change. The issues has the potential to disrupt crucial United Nations climate talks COP27 in Egypt in November.

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