A new poll almost a year on from the General Election suggests MPs across Hull and East Yorkshire would almost all lose their seats if another national vote was held right now.
YouGov has released the results of its first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the General Election that took place on July 4, 2024. Instead of just assessing overall national voter intention, as most polls do, MRP polls can be used to estimate the outcome of each seat.
Despite Labour’s landslide victory coming just 12 months ago, the poll suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party would not only lose its majority today, but also not hang onto its position as the largest party in the House of Commons. Instead, Reform UK would become the biggest party in a hung Parliament. It suggests the party, led by Nigel Farage, would win 271 seats, therefore missing out on the all important 326 mark which is needed to secure an overall majority.
The poll’s results sees Labour dropping from its current 403 seats to 178 and the Liberal Democrats being the third largest party with 81 MPs. The Conservative Party would fall to just 46 seats, 74 fewer than they have in the current Parliament.
Following their victory in the Hull and East Yorkshire Mayoral election, along with notable wins in local council elections such as those in Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire, the polls suggests Reform UK would extend their success into Parliamentary seats.
Of the six constituencies in Hull and East Yorkshire, the YouGov survey states that five of the six sitting MPs would lose their seats – all ousted by Reform UK.
The poll suggests that only Labour’s Dame Diana Johnson would hold her Hull North and Cottingham seat while the other two Hull MPs, Labour’s Emma Hardy and Karl Turner who represent Hull West and Haltemprice and Hull East respectively, would both lose out to Mr Farage’s party.
All three MPs in the East Riding would lose their seats according to the poll. Currently, these constituencies are represented by Conservative MPs – Sir David Davis, Charlie Dewhirst, and Graham Stuart – but they would be replaced by Reform MPs if an election was held tomorrow, the poll suggests.
Interestingly, despite their relative success, coming in second place in the Hull and East Yorkshire Mayoral election, as well as controlling Hull City Council, the poll doesn’t predict much local success for the Liberal Democrats. It claims the party would come in fourth place in four of the six local seats (the three East Riding seats and Hull West and Haltemprice), and third place in other two Hull seats.
Of course, the Government has no obligation to call another General Election until August 2029 at the latest so things could change dramatically before then.
By: Andrew Spence, LDRS
